Increases in herbicide TC price can be expected in H1 2024 02-09-2024

Summary: It is expected that herbicide TC price will go up in China in H1 2024, but there is low possibility that the price would increase to the 2022 level as global economic downturn will not be over soon and there are no big market gaps to be filled in the short term.

In 2023, overall price trend of herbicides TC in China was decrease first and gradual approach to stabilisation. It is thus expected that herbicide TC price will go up in China in H1 2024.

 

There were several times in 2023 that herbicides TC were traded quite badly in traditional peak selling periods, which, from another perspective, indicates that herbicide TC stocks in buyers are at a relatively low level, and this in turn is conducive to future increase in herbicide TC price. From Jan. to March 2023, ex-works price of herbicides TC in China turned from growth to decrease, as weak downstream demand and purchase could not support a rising price. Then from March to May 2023, there were quite large overseas herbicide TC stocks since buyers had made big stockpiles in advance in H2 2022. March, usually a peak season for herbicide TC purchase, unexpectedly became a low season this time, with only small amount of orders placed to make replenishment. Thus the herbicide TC price still declined. From July to Sept. 2023, there were obvious increases in the price of glyphosate TC as orders grew, which helped slow the overall price decrease in herbicide TC price. However, because glyphosate TC traders downsized their inventories, the market was disturbed and in Sept., the short-lived glyphosate TC price increase ended. More importantly, this dampened glyphosate TC producers' expectation of expanding demand in the peak season in Sept.–Oct., as well as the confidence held by buyers in herbicides TC in general. As a result, overall herbicide TC price registered a bigger drop in Sept.

 

Production of herbicides TC remained basically at a low level in China in 2023; the dull demand made the majority of herbicide TC producers cautious in operation. Sometimes, producers could fulfil new orders with their inventories. It is roughly estimated that in 2023, the operating rate of glyphosate producers averaged below 70% in China, and for other herbicides such as triazines TC and sulfonylureas TC, the rate was much lower, possibly lower than 30%. From another point of view, as market inventories have been on the decline, price recovery seems quite hopeful.

 

It should be noted that herbicide TC producers have had strong willingness to prop up the price, which will also be a driving force for future price increase. However, chance for a price recovery to 2022 level is slim. After all, global economic downturn will not be over in a short period. Besides, there will not be large needs to be met as overseas herbicide TC purchasers had made orders on need-to basis in 2023.

Figure Average growth trend of herbicide TC ex-works price in China, Jan.–Dec. 2023


Source: CCM

Table Price trend of herbicides TC in China, Jan.–Dec. 2023
Month Price trend Summary
Jan. The majority of herbicides TC saw their ex-works price go down. Of triazine herbicides, atrazine TC, though it was still in a slow season, had the price propped up by high raw material costs. Most sulfonylurea herbicides experienced MoM price drops. Amide herbicides had different demand trends, but production costs of these herbicides stayed high, affected by raw material prices. For organophosphorus herbicides, shrinking export and low trade volume resulted from dwindled confidence in downstream buyers drove the price down. Price growth of herbicides TC slowed due to sluggish demand; the price of some main herbicides TC decreased.
Feb. The majority of herbicides TC saw their ex-works price go down. Of triazine herbicides, atrazine TC, though it was still in a slow season, had the price propped up by high raw material costs. Sulfonylurea herbicides experienced MoM price drops. The price of amide herbicides was lowered, mainly affected by raw material prices. For organophosphorus herbicides, the price went down due to shrinking export, low trade volume resulted from dwindled confidence in downstream buyers, and low-priced formulation products. The price of florasulam TC, a triazolopyrimidine sulfonamide herbicide, remained stable. Price growth of herbicides TC basically stopped and downtrend was about to start due to sluggish demand.
March The majority of herbicides TC saw their ex-works price go down. Triazine herbicides had stable price. The prices of amide herbicides were lowered only slightly, as there was a rigid demand. For organophosphorus herbicides, however, greater price declines were witnessed. The price of florasulam TC, a triazolopyrimidine sulfonamide herbicide, remained stable. Herbicide TC price decreased due to sluggish demand.
April The price of organophosphorus herbicides was still in the downtrend. Triazine herbicides had quite stable price. Of amide herbicides and sulfonylurea herbicides, some saw the price drop, while some others had steady price. The prices of diquat TK and diuron TC fell. Herbicide TC price decreased due to sluggish demand.
May An overall downtrend was witnessed in herbicide TC price. The price of nicosulfuron TC edged up a little, the prices of triazine herbicides and pretilachlor TC were basically stable, but the prices of other main herbicides TC decreased. In particular, big MoM price drops were seen in diquat TK, organophosphorus herbicides and metolachlor TC. Herbicide TC price decreased due to sluggish demand.
June Market demand for herbicides did not improve and downstream purchase was lukewarm; prices of some herbicides were set lower. In general, triazine herbicides, amide herbicides and nicosulfuron TC had stable price, while organophosphorus herbicides experienced obvious price fall. Herbicide TC price decreased due to sluggish demand.
July Many herbicides TC had stable price. The price of triazine herbicides was stable. For organophosphorus herbicides, the price of glyphosate TC jumped up, while that of glufosinate-ammonium TC went further down. Overseas demand for glyphosate recovered, but production in some domestic glyphosate producers was restricted; glyphosate inventory in the market thus reduced obviously. Glufosinate-ammonium inventory, in contrast, remained at a high level. Downstream demand was weak and orders were made mainly to meet immediate needs. Herbicide TC price gradually turned steadier. The price of glyphosate TC went up as overseas demand grew.
Aug. Overall herbicide market had little improvement, and there was strong imbalance between supply and demand. The price of triazine herbicides was stable. For organophosphorus herbicides, the price of glufosinate-ammonium TC continued to fall. Demand for glufosinate-ammonium TC was still dull, while inventories in the market were kept at a high level. Slow trading continued, as new orders came mainly to satisfy the rigid demand. Despite continuous increase in the price of glyphosate TC, some traders started to downsize their inventories as overseas demand grew at a relatively slow pace. Herbicide TC price fell back, though the price uptrend of glyphosate TC continued.
Sept. Many herbicides TC had stable price. Of triazine herbicides, some had stable price, while some had price decrease. Of sulfonylurea herbicides, the prices of quizalofop-P-ethyl TC and bensulfuron-methyl TC were steady, but the price of nicosulfuron TC slipped due to imbalanced supply-demand relation in off-season. For amide herbicides, as application period of these herbicides was basically over, the prices of acetochlor TC and metolachlor TC went down, but the price of pretilachlor TC stayed static. The price of organophosphorus herbicides went down; producers of glufosinate-ammonium TC and glyphosate TC mainly consumed their inventories. Herbicide TC price decreased due to sluggish demand. Some producers tried not to make concessions in price, which somehow stopped further price fall.
Oct. Herbicide TC market was rather stable due to low purchase willingness and weak demand. Production costs of triazine herbicides had little change as prices of the intermediates isopropylamine, cyanuric chloride and ethylamine kept stable. For atrazine TC, despite dull demand in an off season, its price basically stabilised. Of sulfonylurea herbicides, nicosulfuron TC and bensulfuron-methyl TC maintained a stable price, and quizalofop-P-ethyl TC saw its price turned steady as exports improved. The price of glufosinate-ammonium TC and glyphosate TC kept stable under weak demand. However, the price of glufosinate-P TC declined, against the backdrop of growing new glufosinate-P formulation projects and intensified competition. The price of florasulam TC was basically stable. Herbicide TC price decreased due to sluggish demand. Some producers tried not to make concessions in price, which somehow stopped further price fall.
Nov. The price of glufosinate-ammonium TC went up against a general downtrend in herbicide TC market. Organophosphorus herbicides had mixed price trends. On average, the price of sulfonylurea herbicides and amide herbicides went down, while the price of triazine herbicides TC was steady. Particularly, for amide herbicides, buyers held a wait-and-see attitude in general with just a small number of deals made, yet most producers kept normal production; large stocks in the market dragged the price further down. Producers continued to prop up the price, which is conducive to stabilising the price away from further fall. The price of glufosinate-ammonium TC went up with the support from raw material costs.
Dec. In general, herbicides TC had MoM price fall. For organophosphorus herbicides, glyphosate TC saw its price drop further as buyers pushed for a lower price, while glufosinate-ammonium TC had the price recovered even though the downstream demand remained weak. For sulfonylurea herbicides, nicosulfuron TC, quizalofop-P-ethyl TC and bensulfuron-methyl TC experienced MoM price decrease, mainly because orders were rare; metsulfuron-methyl TC and tribenuron-methyl TC had stable price thanks to the producers' successful efforts to prevent price fall. At the end of Dec., the price of these herbicides became steadier. Of amide herbicides, pretilachlor TC and acetochlor TC saw price decline much narrowed though the downtrend continued, while butachlor TC and metolachlor TC saw the price stabilise. Producers continued to prop up the price, which is conducive to stabilising the price away from further fall. The price of glufosinate-ammonium TC went up with the support from raw material costs.

Source: CCM

Source:CCM

More information can be found at CCM Herbicide China Monthly Report.

 

About CCM:

CCM is the leading market intelligence provider for China’s agriculture, chemicals, food & feed and life science markets. Founded in 2001, CCM offers a range of content solutions, from price and trade analysis to industry newsletters and customized market research reports. CCM is a brand of Kcomber Inc.

 
For more information about CCM, please visit www.cnchemicals.com or get in touch with us directly by emailing econtact@cnchemicals.com or calling +86-20-37616606.


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